Apple: UBS Ups Target To $415, Ups Q4 Estimates

UBS Securities analyst Maynard Um this morning raised his price target on shares of Apple (AAPL) to $415 from a prior $365, writing that next Tuesday’s fiscal Q1 report will probably come in stronger than expected given strong demand for MacBook Airs and the holidays’ heavily-gifted iOS items.

Um is modeling $24.57 billion in revenue and $5.40 in EPS, on a 36.8% gross margin, versus the Street at $24.2 billion and $5.31. Apple’s own forecast has called for$23 billion and $4.80 per share.

the MacBook Air appears to have done well, according to his “checks” during the quarter, and though that could lead to lower gross profit, Um thinks that Apple may have been helped by having taken a larger-than-normal warranty accrual in the September quarter. A reversal of that accrual in the December quarter may have buffered the company from even a 5-percentage-point decline in gross margin on the Air.

The iPad likely saw “robust demand” — he raised his estimate to 6 million. This was probably the first quarter not constrained by supply, Um thinks. Margins, which he was modeling at 25% for iPad, may have been helped by improved scale of manufacture and lower component pricing.

iPhone, which was selling in 89 countries, up from 64 a year earlier, probably helped the company hit 15.6 million units, which is up from his prior 14.1 million estimate. Um also raised his 2011 calendar estimate for iPhone to 69.4 million units, from 67.3 million, on the heels of this week’s Verizon Communications (VZ) announcement.

iPod sales probably fell 4.6%, year over year, to 20 million.

Certainly, Apple have the wind of the PC market in the U.S. at their backs.

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There are 6 comments

    • Yawn…..

    • Open your mouth a little wider on that yawn. I got something I could shove in there for ya.

    • “Um is modeling $24.57 billion in revenue and $5.40 in EPS, on a 36.8% gross margin. The Street has been looking for $23 billion and $4.80 per share.”

      Incorrect. I believe the $23b and $4.80 are good old Apple conservative guidance. The Street consensus should be 24.25b and $5.31. Um’s forecast of a net gain of 2.1m units for 2011 to account for Verizon partnership is just too conservative.

    • Covino: I’m sorry, you’re absolutely right. Thanks for pointing out the error.

    • Given the growth rate of the smartphone market – a prediction of 70 million iPhones next year represent a large decline in market share. I don’t see that. At this point iPhone 4 sales are severely constrained in china. There is still a 1 week wait for iPhone 4 around the world. Apple is getting rid of their last exclusive contract. Can you think of another product still back ordered after 7 months? Look for 90 million iPhones for FY 2011

    • Everyday there’s a new target number. Who cares? Everyone knows Apple is king & going to do nothing but continue to go up & probably way past 400 before the end of the year. What’s equally as entertaining is reading moronic postings from Apple haters. They are so ignorant.

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  • Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to:

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