By The Associated Press
Here is a list of uncontested races in Tennessee.<
State Senate – District 2
Doug Overbey (i), GOP
State Senate – District 4
Ron Ramsey (i), GOP
State Senate – District 8
Frank Niceley, GOP
State Senate – District 12
Ken Yager (i), GOP
State Senate – District 14
Jim Tracy (i), GOP
State Senate – District 30
Jim Kyle (i), Dem
State Senate – District 32
Mark Norris (i), GOP
House District 13 Combat
In House District 13, one of the closest contests in the state, the state parties are weighing in with attacks on both Democrat Gloria Johnson ( Republicans, most recently, suggest she supports voter fraud ) and Republican Gary Loe (Democrats say he favors abortion in cases of rape and incest, for example> Story HERE.
The Scene in Northeast Tennessee
The Johnson City Press, as part of a roundup of contests in Northeast Tennessee, includes a review of contested legislative races – though, naturally, Republicans are heavy favorites. Story HERE.
Profiles Stories in Senate District 10
The Chattanooga Times-Free Press has campaign profile stories on Republican Todd Gardenhire and Democrat Andrae McGray.
State lawmakers in both parties are worried about the flood of independent expenditures by outside groups during Tennessee’s Aug. 2 legislative primaries, reports Andy Sher.
They see it as the first wave of a trend that could transform elections in Tennessee.
“It kind of perverts the system,” said state Rep. Frank Niceley, R-Strawberry Plains. He was caught in a crossfire in his Senate primary by PACs run by the National Rifle Association and the Humane Society of the United States.
The two groups, often at each other’s throats, attacked Niceley for different reasons. Niceley survived and won his East Tennessee GOP primary.
But several other incumbents who lost also were hit by independent expenditures, and lawmakers say the groups are having an outsized impact.
Mike Turner, the Nashville Democrat who heads his party’s House caucus, said it is “scary that the average person will not be able to influence the elections as much as they once could because they could be overwhelmed by the super PACs.”
Turner played down the impact on House Democratic incumbents in the general election but fretted the independent expenditures “have the potential to impact some of our challengers.”
Vanderbilt University political science professor John Geer said such spending is common in federal elections since a 2010 U.S. Supreme Court decision.
In a presidential campaign, the spending may have less impact because voters know the candidates and their positions, he said.
“As you go down the ladder, they’re going to have more and more effect,” he said. “At the state legislative level, you can imagine them having huge effects” because even incumbents are not that well known.
The effect is most strong in party primaries where there is “not a strong anchor,” Geer said.
Kyle, DeBerry, Hardaway Win Democratic Shelby Battles
Senate Democratic Leader Jim Kyle of Memphis defeated fellow Democratic Sen. Beverly Marrero in a closely watched race Thursday after the two were placed in the same district in this year’s legislative remapping…And in Memphis’ two state House races where four incumbent Democrats were paired off against each other, Rep. John DeBerry defeated Rep. Jeanne Richardson and financial consultant Ian Randolph in House District 90, while Rep. G.A. Hardaway ended Rep. Mike Kernell’s 38-year tenure in the legislature in their District 93 race. HERE.
Cobb Loses in Squeaker
In a lively Republican primary for the House District 31, Ron Travis, a Dayton businessman, beat Rep. Jim Cobb, R-Spring City, in the recently redrawn district that cut out Hamilton County, and now includes Rhea, Sequatchie, Bledsoe and part of Roane counties. Travis, 57, squeaked out a win, pulling 51 percent of the vote to Cobb’s 49 percent, but he lost in his home county of Rhea. HERE.
Hill Tops in House District 3
Blountville businessman Timothy Hill’s second attempt at winning Tennessee’s 3rd House District GOP primary was successful Thursday. Hill defeated former Mountain City Mayor Kevin Parsons and Bluff City Republicans Karen Greene Morrell and Thomas White. Hill garnered 2,851 votes compared to 1,544 for Parsons, 876 for Morrell, and 85 for White. In forums across the district, Hill insisted he was the conservative choice in the race. HERE.
Van Huss Unseats Ford
Republican newcomer Micah Van Huss entered the political arena for the first time Thursday and promptly knocked incumbent state Rep. Dale Ford, R-Jonesborough, out of the running for a chance at a fourth term. Van Huss will now face Democrat Michael Clark in the Nov. 6 election for the right to serve in Nashville as the 6th District House representative. Van Huss garnered 3,150 votes (53.8 percent) to Ford’s 2,699 (46.1 percent). HERE.
Calfee Beats Hurley
Challenger Kent Calfee beat incumbent Julia Hurley in Thursday’s Republican primary for the 32nd state House District. In November, Calfee will face Democrat Jack McNew for the seat. He held 59 percent of the vote over Hurley in unofficial returns late Thursday from the Roane County Election Commission. A grassroots campaign aided his win, according to Calfee. “The word-of-mouth thing,” the former Roane County commissioner said. “People would ask their friends about me and they know me and they knew I’d do a good job.” HERE.
Hensley Wins Senate GOP Nod
State Rep. Joey Hensley of Hohenwald clinched the Republican Primary race for State Senate District 28 Thursday, earning 12,586 — 76 percent — of the votes from the six-county district, according to preliminary state election data. Hensley will now go on to face Democratic candidate Ty Cobb — a Columbia firefighter and former member of the state House of Representatives — for the seat, which represents Maury, Giles, Lawrence, Lewis, Perry and Wayne counties. HERE.
Favors Favored Over Brown
One thing is certain after Thursday night’s election — Rep. Tommie Brown won’t be returning to the state House in January. JoAnne Favors carried Thursday night’s election with 72.2 percent of the vote in a newly drawn district that pitted two black Democratic stalwarts against one another in a bruising primary. HERE.
A wealthy Nashville health care investor has given more than $120,000 to two new political action committees that have used most of the money to attack incumbent Republican state legislators or help their challengers in the last days of campaigning.
The sole donor to the two new PACs is Andrew E. Miller, who last week gained national attention by giving $260,000 to two federal-level PACs that are using the money for attacks on incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Diane Black in Tennessee’s 6th Congressional District.
One of the state-level PACs is Tennesseans 4 Ethics in Government, which has been given $50,250 by Miller, according to disclosures filed with the state Registry of Election Finance. The PAC used $30,263 to pay for radio ads targeting four incumbents and had $19,987 remaining as of Monday, the report says.
Targeted incumbents in the ads are Sen. Doug Overbey, R-Maryville; Rep. Dale Ford, R-Jonesborough; Rep. Debra Maggart, R-Hendersonville; and Rep. Charles Sargent, R-Franklin. The disclosure reports spending $7,885 each on Overbey and Ford ads; $7,221 on the Maggart and Sargent ads.
The second new PAC, named Truth Matters, got $71,000 from Miller, then distributed all but about $7,500 of the money to 10 Republican candidates.
Among the donations: $7,100 each to Scott Hughes, Overebey’s opponent in Senate District 2, and Micah Van Huss, Ford’s opponent in House District 6; and Rob Hathaway, Sargent’s opponent in House District 61. Maggart’s opponent, Courtney Rogers, got $5,800.
Under state law, Miller could have given just $1,400 to a House candidate as an individual. . But a PAC can give up to $7,100 to a candidate.
Others receiving $7,100 contributions from Truth Matters PAC include two incumbents who face challengers on Aug. 2, Reps. Tony Shipley, R-Kingsport; and Jeremy Faison, R-Cosby,
Also receiving donations were Republican candidates in open seats where multiple candidates are running. Those chosen for contributions by Truth Matters were Eric Chance of Morrison in Senate District 16; Timothy Hill of Blountville in House District 3; and Rob Mortensen of Nashville in Senate District 20, Rep. Jim Gotto, R-Nashville, who has no primary opponent but faces a Democrat in November, received $5,000.
Registry records also show Miller put $10,000 into another new entity, Standard Club PAC, that had not made donations to any candidates as of last week’s disclosure deadline. The new PAC received no other money.
He also gave $10,000 to a PAC operated by House Speaker Pro Temoore Judd Mathney of Tullahoma and $40,000 to Leaders of Tennessee PAC, an established PAC that donates to conservative Republicans.
Tennessee Right to Life, the state’s largest organization devoted to opposing abortion, endorses mostly incumbents and mostly Republicans in a list of candidates for the state Legislature that was released recently.
The list includes only two Democrats – Reps. Charles Curtiss of Sparta and John Mark Windle of Livingston. Neither has an opponent in the primary, but both will have Republican opponents in November. (Full list HERE)
There is no endorsement of any candidate opposing a sitting Republican legislator, though more than a score of incumbent Republicans face opposition in the Aug. 2 primary. There are endorsements in GOP primaries for seats where there is no Republican.
News release from National Institute on Money in State Politics:
When it comes to state elections, money and incumbency were key to success during the 2009-2010 elections-although not as much as they used to be. Two new reports from the National Institute on Money in State Politics examine the role that money and incumbency played in the 2009-2010 state elections, as well as how those two factors contributed to a state’s legislative competitiveness.
The reports, The Role of Money & Incumbency in 2009-2010 Elections and Monetary Competitiveness in 2009-2010 State Legislative Races found that 73 percent of legislative seats up for election were contested, up from 67 percent in 2007-08 and 69 percent in 2005-06. Races for 89 percent of the uncontested seats featured an incumbent. When seats were contested in the general election, the success rate of those with the incumbency advantage declined 7 percent from the comparable 2005-06 elections, and 9 percent from the 2007-08 elections. Candidates who had both the money and incumbency advantages dropped from 96 percent between 2005-06 to 88 percent between 2009-10. In the same time frame, the success rate of candidates with neither advantage increased by 4 percent.
State Rep. Tony Shipley kicked off his re-election bid for a third term in office Thursday night with testimonials from Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, other state lawmakers and local officials.
Hank Hayes was on the scene:
Shipley, R-Kingsport, is again seeking the 2nd House District seat in the GOP primary and faces a challenge from former Kingsport Alderman Ben Mallicote.
Neither Shipley, nor the elected officials endorsing him, publicly mentioned Mallicote at the downtown event held inside Korner-Copia.
“My opponent is certainly entitled to hold a rally, but the voters of the 2nd District are also entitled to hear the candidates engage in a substantive debate about the issues,” Mallicote said in response to Shipley’s event.
“Representative Shipley has ignored invitations to debate from the Chamber, Kiwanis, Rotary and WKPT, retreating instead into a small group of his supporters. It’s a shame he no longer feels he needs to earn our citizens’ votes.”
Ramsey, R-Blountville, told the small crowd that he has known Shipley since both went to Sullivan Central High School.
“He has not changed one bit,” Ramsey said of Shipley. “People ask me all the time: ‘Are you behaving in Nashville?’ I say ‘No. You don’t want me to behave. You want somebody who keeps it stirring, keeps it going, changing the direction of the country and the state, and Tony is one doing that.'”
State Rep. Jeremy Faison, R-Cosby, pointed out Shipley understands he answers to the electorate.
“You can find someone who wants to keep a seat warm in Nashville, or you can find someone who will get in the mud and fight … (and) maybe he’s a little rough around the edges,” Faison said of Shipley.
State Rep. Jon Lundberg, R-Bristol, told Shipley he was a “brash and blunt” lawmaker starting out four years ago.
“You want someone like that starting out in Nashville. … You don’t want someone to say ‘I will try to do this or that.’ … Tony, you’ve been consistent for four years,” Lundberg told Shipley.
State Rep. Harry Tindell will apparently vote for fellow Democrat Gloria Johnson as his successor in representing Knox County’s 13th House District, but he won’t flatly say so and says he won’t be actively campaigning for anyone.
“I don’t sell Gloria short at all. I’m just choosing not to try to push my will on voters. She’s got a lot of energy and ideas,” said Tindell explaining his official silence in an interview.
Tindell, who announced earlier this year that he won’t seek re-election to a 12th term in the state House, says he also knows the other candidates seeking to succeed him and “they all have some very positive traits.”
The others are Independent candidate Nick Cazana and Republicans Gary Loe and Vanderbilt Brabson, who are now engaged in a primary battle.
At another point Tindell said: “I am a Democrat and I vote Democrat,” but then added “I’ll make my decision in the voting booth.
“I don’t think people want to hear what I think, what I want,” he said. “It’s the voters’ decision, not retiring politicians.”
Tindell noted the Tennessee Journal has rated the 13th District as one of nine “tossup” races for the state House in November, meaning the political insider newsletter figures the seat could go either to Johnson, who is unopposed in the primary, or to the Republican nominee. Tindell said he shares that assessment.
“It’s a very mixed district,” he said of the area redrawn by the Legislature’s Republican majority earlier this year. “I think it’s going to be coin-flip close.”
The outcome, he said, will be based on “personality, work effort in campaigning, message and money.”
“The candidate who has three out of those four wins,” he said.
Earlier this year, Tindell had predicted multiple candidates would run for the seat, probably at least eight or nine, and was surprised only four filed.
He had an explanation for the relatively few candidates: “People have watched enough of the cable news networks on the problems of government and they don’t want to be part of it — particularly the ugliness of campaigns.”
The Tennessee Journal has put out its first list rating 2012 Republican-versus-Democratic races for the state House and Senate and, no surprise, it looks grim for Democrats.
In the Senate, there are 11 incumbent Republicans who aren’t up for reelection this year and six of those who are up have no Democratic opponent. Ergo, the GOP is already assured of holding the 17 seats needed for a majority for the 108th General Assembly, which will convene in January. The question is whether they can go from the current 20 Republican seats to 22, which would be the two-thirds majority needed to make Democrats pretty much irrelevant.
The subscription-only Journal has three Senate seats rated as partisan toss-up contests – District 20, now held by Democratic Sen. Joe Haynes of Nashville; District 24, now held by Democratic Sen. Roy Herron of Dresden; and District 28, the new open seat in Southern Middle Tennessee. Herron and Haynes are both retiring. District 28 is, in effect, the seat moved from Shelby County by redistricting – a shift that left Democratic Sens. Jim Kyle and Beverly Marrero to run against one another in the primary.
The next most competitive category is “leaning.”
District 10, now held by retiring Democratic Sen. Andy Berke of Chattanooga, is rated as “leaning Republican.” District 16, now held by retiring Democratic Sen. Eric Stewart of Belvidere, and District 22, held by Democratic Sen. Tim Barnes of Clarksville, are rated as “leaning Democratic.”
Thus, Democrats would have to sweep all six of the most competitive races just to maintain their status quo of 13 seats (versus 20 for Republicans now).
In the House, Journal Editor Ed Cromer has nine “toss-up” races.
They are seats now held by Republican Rep. David Hawk of Greeneville (District 5), Democratic Rep. Harry Tindell of Knoxville (who is retiring in District 13), Republican Rep. John Ragan of Oak Ridge (District 33), Republican Rep. David Alexander of Winchester (District 39), Democratic Rep. Gary Moore of Nashville (also retiring, District 50), Republican Rep. Jim Gotto of Nashville (District 60), Republican Rep. Tim Wirgau of Paris (District 75), Republican Rep. Andy Holt of Dresden (District 76) and the new, open-seat District 92, which covers all of Marshall County and parts of Lincoln, Franklin and Marion counties.
There’s one “leaning Democrat” seat (open seat District 53 in Nashville) and seven “leaning Republican.” Four of the latter are held by incumbent Republicans – Reps. Julia Hurley of Lenoir City, Kelly Keisling of Byrdstown, Shelia Butt of Columbia, Bill Sanderson of Kenton.
From the Journal story:
The Tennessee Journal’s initial breakdown shows 25 (House) seats in the safe, probable, or leaning Democratic categories. Democrats would have to win all nine toss-up races simply to get back to where they started — at 34 seats — and this is unlikely. Republicans need only a net gain of two seats to have a two-thirds majority.