A new poll shows Scottie Mayfield with a 9-point lead over incumbent U.S. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann and challenger Weston Wamp in the three-man GOP primary.
The poll, commissioned by Mayfield’s campaign and conducted April 3-5, shows Mayfield taking 34 percent of the vote, while Fleischmann and Wamp are tied with 25 percent each. Seventeen percent of voters remain undecided. The poll’s margin of error is 4.9 percent.
Mayfield, the president of Mayfield Dairy, is trying to unseat Fleischmann, a first-term congressman from Ooltewah who represents Tennessee…s 3rd Congressional District. Mayfield entered the race seven weeks ago. He…s already raised $452,000.
Note: Item lifted from the News Sentinel.
UPDATE: The campaign news release and a memo are below.
News release from Scottie Mayfield campaign:
Scottie Mayfield, Republican candidate for Congress in Tennessee’s Third District,released highlights of a survey conducted recently by Whit Ayres, who has also served as pollster and advisor to Governor Bill Haslam and Senators Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker and Bill Frist.
The Mayfield campaign released a one page memo summarizing the results of the poll, showing Mayfield nine points ahead of both incumbent Chuck Fleischmann and challenger Weston Wamp, well outside the margin of error.
Mayfield entered the race just seven weeks ago. He reported a record-‐shattering $452,000 funds raised in those seven weeks, more than both of his opponents combined.
“Polling results are a snapshot,” said Tommy Hopper, general consultant to Mayfield. “We’re obviously very pleased that voters respond to Scottie’s message, image
and life experience. 40 years experience in small business and creating jobs
and zero years playing Washington political games is exactly what voters are looking for,”
“But Scottie has already been falsely attacked, and that will continue, and so we plan an
aggressive, positive campaign about who can be the best congressman for the people of
the Third District,” he added.
“In thirty years, I don’t believe I’ve ever seen a primary challenger actually leading the incumbent just seven weeks into the race. It just means we’ll work even harder. We like both our opponents and think both are good men, but this election
is about who can do best by and for our country. Scottie’s integrity, life experience and
40 year record in business and not politics is why he’s the best candidate. Voters will also
like his humility, basic goodness, faith, family, and desire to run a positive campaign focused on getting our country back on track.”
To: Scottie Mayfield and Tommy Hopper
From: Whit Ayres and Dan Judy
Date: April 15, 2012
Re: Mayfield Leads 3rd District Republican Primary Race for Congress
Our firm conducted a survey of 400 likely Republican primary voters in Tennessee’s new 3rd Congressional District on April 3-5, 2012, with a margin of error of ±4.90 percent. Key highlights of the survey are:
1. Scottie Mayfield currently leads both incumbent Chuck Fleischmann and Weston Wamp among likely Republican primary voters in the race for the Republican nomination for Congress. In the three-way primary race, Mayfield leads with 34 percent, while Fleischmann and Wamp are tied at 25 percent each, and 17 percent are undecided. Fleischmann holds a slim advantage among voters in the old 3rd District, leading Mayfield by 32 to 30 percent with Wamp at 23 percent. In the new portion of the district, however, Mayfield leads with 41 percent, followed by Wamp with 27 percent and Fleischmann with just 12 percent.
2. Chuck Fleischmann’s numbers are weak for an incumbent. Fleischmann has 78 percent total name ID in the district, with a 42 to 19 percent favorable-unfavorable rating (18 percent have no opinion of him). His job approval is a similar 42 to 23 percent. On the reelection question – the toughest measure of an incumbent’s strength – he fares poorly, with only 28 percent saying he deserves reelection, and 48 percent saying it is time for someone else.
3. Scottie Mayfield is well known and popular among 3rd District Republicans. Scottie Mayfield has 75 percent total name ID in the district, and his 48 to 6 percent favorableunfavorable rating is remarkable for a non-politician. Regionally, his numbers are similar in the old and new portions of the 3rd District.
4. Weston Wamp is reasonably well known but undefined. Wamp has 62 percent total name ID, with a modest 30 to 11 percent favorable-unfavorable rating. He is significantly better known in the old 3rd District, where he has 68 percent name ID and a 34 to 13 percent favorableunfavorable rating. In the new parts of the district, he has just 49 percent name ID and a 22 to 7 percent favorable-unfavorable rating.
The 3rd District Republican primary contest is wide open. Scottie Mayfield holds the initial lead, and stands in an excellent position to win the nomination with a strong, well-funded campaign.