Tag Archives: Class of 2014

How many players will the Vols sign in 2015? As Butch Jones says, it’s in ‘flux’

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — Butch Jones told an audience Wednesday at the Knoxville Tipoff Club that the Vols would probably sign 18-22 players in the 2015 class.

But, he quickly added, that number is in “flux” and would remain so for some time.

At first, Jones’ estimate sounded like an underestimation — perhaps a diplomatic one given the Vols just brought in an estimated 32 players in 2014.

But upon further review, it seems likely that UT could sign a class with fewer than 25 prospects in 2015.

The first factor is how many players, if any, the Vols will push forward to 2015 from this class. That number could be zero, one or two, depending on who’s counting.

But let’s assume that doesn’t happen.

Scholarship status cannot always be determined with certainty, but my list has 14 current seniors out of 85 scholarship players.

So to carve out 25 slots for the 2015 class, the roster would have to undergo considerable attrition, with 11 of the 71 non-seniors (roughly 15 percent) moving on with their careers.

There will be attrition, of course, but counting on that much is probably a bit ambitious — at least for now. So Jones’ guess of 18-22 players is probably as good as any. The Vols already have seven verbal commitments in the 2015 class, which means they’re off to an early start.

Ranking SEC teams in recruiting over last 4 years: Vols fare better than you might expect

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KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — Now that National Signing Day is in the books, let’s take a step back and look at recruiting in the SEC over the last four years.

These are the players — if they’re still around — who will have the greatest impact on a team’s success in 2014.

The numbers don’t lie: Alabama has dominated the recruiting game just as it has on the field.

That’s not a surprise. But Tennessee’s ranking relative to the league average might be better than many expected.

We used the 247Sports Composite rankings in order to get a broad perspective from all the major recruiting services. We also wanted to go beyond a simple ranking to see the relative strength of each class as it compared to the rest of the league.

A few takeaways:

1. Tennessee’s recruiting ratings are above the league average over the last four years both collectively and individually. The Vols have been above the league average in three of the last four years.

2. On the negative side, the Vols suffered serious attrition in the 2012 class. Some of it was natural (Cordarrelle Patterson) but there were also plenty of washouts. Also, some of the higher rated players from 2011 and 2012 simply haven’t lived up to expectations.

3. Florida, despite last year’s debacle, still has plenty of talent. If they can fix a few issues from 2013, they could be right back in the title race.

4. Auburn can still lean on several solid classes and has every reason to expect to be in the mix for the SEC championship again.

5. Texas A&M has put together three consecutive solid classes that should help mitigate the departure of Johnny Manziel.

6. The bottom of the conference is largely what you would expect. Despite recent improvements in recruiting from Kentucky and Vanderbilt, relative to the rest of the league, their ratings are still low.

7. Missouri’s recruiting may not be impressive on paper, but it’s worth remember that the Tigers won the SEC East in 2013 using classes that were ranked near the bottom of the league.

Mizzou’s case, of course, is why factors like retention and development and coaching still matter.

But if we were to judge the 2014 season solely by its inputs, here’s what the standings would look like. Just for fun, we’ll use the four-year relative score (with 100 being average) and give 10 points to the home team in each game.

SEC East

1. Florida, 7-1

2. Georgia, 7-1

3. South Carolina, 5-3

4. Tennessee, 3-5

5. Missouri, 2-6

6. Kentucky, 2-6

7. Vanderbilt, 0-8

SEC West

1. Alabama, 8-0

2. Auburn, 6-2

3. LSU, 5-3

4. Texas A&M, 4-4

5. Ole Miss, 3-5

6. Mississippi State, 2-6

7. Arkansas, 2-6

It would be hard to imagine Missouri and Vanderbilt plummeting so quickly, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Florida make a dramatic rebound.

Before you prepare your hate mail, remember this is just a “fun” excercise that does not necessarily reflect my actual opinion, nor does it have any effect on the real world.

We think Tennessee has 31 scholarships to give — here’s how we came up with that number

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KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — In all the talk about Tennessee’s numbers crunch, there’s one question we don’t know with absolute certainty.

Just how many scholarships does Tennessee have to offer in this recruiting cycle?

For competitive reasons, most teams like to keep that exact number under wraps.

Tennessee, like all teams, can offer no more than 25 initial scholarships in any given year. But they can “count back” some scholarships against the previous class, provided the prospects enroll early and there is space available.

One problem in determining the back-counted scholarships is that back-counting seemingly can go on in perpetuity.

Also, there’s no way of knowing for certain which players arrive with a scholarship and which are walk-ons. That distinction may become even more confusing in this recruiting cycle.

But we can make some educated guesses. And I feel fairly confident in saying that 31 is as good a “magic number” as any this year. Thanks to colleague Daniel Lewis, who helped me hash out some of the details during a math-heavy instant-message conversation. The result was this tabulation that I transferred to a spreadsheet above.

If you just want to trust me on 31 scholarships and skip this part, I don’t blame you. But here’s the nitty-gritty:

The Vols had 22 scholarship players in the 2013 cycle (after subtracting Jabo Lee and adding late signees Johnathon Johnson and Kendal Vickers).

They were able to count three of those back to 2012. The 2012 class had 23 scholarship players (including the gray-shirted Tino Thomas), and was able to count one against 2011.

This is where it becomes confusing, and this is where I think UT’s 2014 maximum grew from 30 to 31. Thomas was gray-shirted and pushed into the 2012 class because Derek Dooley didn’t think there would be room in the 2011 class. As it turns out, however, some very late academic casualties opened up a couple more slots that would have allowed Thomas to enroll. So after back-counting two early enrollees to 2010, UT had only 24 initial scholarships in 2011, allowing the Vols to count back one scholarship from 2012.

The trickle-down effect of that academic casualty in the summer of 2011 action may have led to an extra scholarship in 2014.

Of course, Tennessee may sign more than 31 on Wednesday. But that’s another story.

The geographic midpoint of Tennessee’s 2014 class? For now, Riceville gets the honor

This map shows the geographic midpoints of recent Tennessee recruiting classes. The Class of 2014 has not been finalized.

This map shows the geographic midpoints of recent Tennessee recruiting classes. The Class of 2014 has not been finalized.

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — The geographic midpoint of Tennessee’s 2014 class is farther north and closer to Knoxville than it has been in at least six years.

That was the takeaway from the News Sentinel’s analysis on Tuesday (available for subscribers).

Why the shift north?

Butch Jones has added a couple of prospects from his old stomping grounds in the Midwest. But a bigger factor is the lack of any South Florida presence. For the first time since 2008, the Vols won’t have any prospects from the Miami, Fort Lauderdale or West Palm Beach areas.

If the hometowns of all 34 current commitments in the 2014 class are weighed equally, the geographic midpoint falls just 60 miles southwest of Neyland Stadium, near Riceville. (That map marker could change slightly based on last-minute changes, which is why we’re giving it an asterisk for now).

Here’s the midpoint of the other classes we reviewed. Want to find midpoints yourself? This site is really cool.

*Class of 2014: Riceville, Tenn.

Class of 2013: Calhoun, Ga.

Class of 2012: McDonough, Ga.

Class of 2011: Newnan, Ga.

Class of 2010: Memphis, Tenn.

Class of 2009: Trenton, Ga.

The 2011 and 2012 classes — both recruited and signed exclusively by Derek Dooley and his staff — are remarkably close. They’re both in the south suburbs of Atlanta.

The only real head-scratcher on the list is the Class of 2010, which is about 300 or 400 miles west of all the other midpoints. That class had several California prospects, which skewed everything west. If you take away three of the four West coast kids, the midpoint looks much more normal.

Here’s the map that shows all the midpoints if you want to take a closer look.

National Signing Day will answer some questions about Vols’ numbers crunch — but not all of them

Butch Jones (photo by Evan Woodbery)

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — If you like a good mystery, the growth of Tennessee’s 2014 class has been fun to attempt to unravel.

We think — unofficially — that the Vols have scholarships available for 31 in this recruiting cycle. That’s the NCAA maximum 25 in 2014, plus six counted back against the smaller 2013 class.

Beyond that, we’ve engaged in a lot of speculation about Butch Jones and the Vols’ number-crunching strategies.

As of today, the Vols have 34 verbal commitments. Michael Sawyers, visiting this weekend, would be No. 35 if he chooses to commit to Tennessee ahead of Ole Miss and Georgia Tech.

So how does 35 become 31 in a climate in which once-routine “over-signing” has essentially been legislated out of existence?

We might get some clues about the answer to that question on Wednesday, even if the final resolution doesn’t come until this summer.

News Sentinel subscribers can check out a long story I wrote on that subject in Sunday’s paper.

In a nutshell, the Vols have a few options:

1. Pare down the current class to 31 (remember that 14 have already enrolled) by slicing off players who might have academic troubles and asking them to sit tight for the moment. If they qualify, offer them a grayshirt opportunity in 2015. If they find another home in the meantime, wish them well.

Advantages: Avoids negative “over-signing’ publicity.

Disadvantages: Might lose borderline academic cases.

2. Go full steam ahead with the so-called “loophole” strategy. In this case, Tennessee could sign 34 or 35 (or perhaps even more) and then worry about paring down the class later.

Advantages: By signing borderline players, UT would be in a better position to push them toward gray-shirting opportunities in 2015.

Disadvantages: Negative attention from alleged “over-signing” might not be worth the advantages of hanging on to only a couple of players.

3. A mixed strategy: This is what I think UT might pursue and I think it will leave the most unanswered questions. Let’s assume that UT wants to hold on to more than 31 of its commitments AND avoid “over-signing” in a way that will attract negative scrutiny. There has to be some way to let those 32nd, 33rd or 34th players feel like a part of the class without actually signing them to National Letters of Intent. How will that be done? I’m not exactly sure. Perhaps one or two will blue-shirt or others will gray-shirt. Academic risks could be held in wait-and-see mode.

So Wednesday might come down to semantics. A blue-shirting player can’t sign a Letter of Intent or an aid agreement. So could Jones comment about him publicly? Could he be mentioned in the UT press release? I’m not entirely sure.

Some of this is uncharted territory, which is why I think we’ll get at least a hint of clarity on Wednesday.

5-star cornerback Adoree Jackson eliminates Tennessee from contention

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — Five-star cornerback Adoree Jackson won’t be coming to Tennessee.

Jackson eliminated the Vols from contention when he announced his top four schools on Twitter Tuesday night. They are: Florida, LSU, Southern California and UCLA.

With Jackson now out of the picture, the Vols’ 2014 signing class could be nearly finished.

Jackson, rated the No. 1 cornerback in the country in 247Sports Composite, has played his recruitment close to the vest, although most have given USC and Florida a slight edge.

Could Adoree Jackson be last major decision to watch in Vols’ 2014 class?

Adoree Jackson (247Sports photo)

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — With National Signing Day now in sight, Tennessee’s class has started to take a clearer form in the last four days.

Running back Derrell Scott is in.

Commitments who were visiting elsewhere, like defensive lineman Dewayne Hendrix, appear to be solidified (although other schools are still working to flip Cory Thomas and Derek Barnett).

Last-second additions like Wisconsin commitment Craig Evans seem to be off the table.

So where does that leave the drama between now and National Signing Day?

Look West to five-star cornerback Adoree Jackson.

 

J.C. Shurburtt‘s comments Tuesday (listen to them here on GVX Audio) suggested that Tennessee is no more a long shot than any other team in the quest to sign Jackson, the No. 1 corner in the nation in the 247Sports Composite.

ESPNU’s College Football Live featured Jackson on Tuesday night, focusing on his overall athletic ability (Jackson punts too, by the way), but especially his passion for track. 

Jackson said his goal is to compete in the 2016 Olympics in the long jump.

Jackson has previously listed Southern California, UCLA, Florida, LSU, Oklahoma and Tennessee as his finalists.

USC and Florida have generally been considered the teams to beat. But the decision is tough to predict. Jackson’s parents live in East St. Louis, Ill. — where Tennessee’s staff has visited more than once — while he lives with his sister in California.

Jackson plans to announce on National Signing Day, ensuring some last-second suspense for fans of his final teams.

After commitment of Derrell Scott, a look at Tennessee’s running back roster

Derrell Scott (247Sports)

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — When Derrell Scott signs with Tennessee next week, the four-star running back will offer an important buffer in a backfield that was facing another year of being uncomfortably thin.

Yes, the Vols have returning veteran Marlin Lane. And yes, they do have two running back commitments, including five-star Jalen Hurd.

But Hurd and fellow incoming freshman Treyvon Paulk are both coming off season-ending injuries. While the Vols hope for big things out of Hurd, they didn’t want to enter the season without any other plans.

The running back rotation now looks positively brimming with options, and we could even see more of the two-back looks that the Vols started incorporating late in 2013.

Here’s what the roster might look like in 2014.

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For more, check out our complete 2014 commitment list and updated roster needs.

Vols commit Cory Thomas, en route to Starkville this weekend, among a few prospects UT trying to keep in fold

 

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — When Cory Thomas verbally committed to Tennessee in November, he wasn’t quite ready to close the door on Mississippi State.

MSU coaches, in turn, have never relented in their recruitment of the three-star strong-side defensive end from McAdory High School in suburban Birmingham, Ala.

Thomas will visit MSU this weekend, but is slated to finish the recruiting season next weekend in Knoxville. Despite being verbally committed to UT, many prognosticators expect him to eventually end up in Starkville.

In interviews, Thomas has expressed concern about the size of UT’s class and the number of defensive lineman the Vols plan to sign. At 6-foot-6, 270 pounds, Thomas is listed as a strong-side end, but could easily move up to tackle now or in the future. UT coaches will undoubtedly try to impress upon the Thomas their need for big linemen on defense.

Who else must UT keep a close eye on in the final two weeks?

Dewayne Hendrix, another strong-side end, is scheduled to visit Missouri this weekend. Normally UT might win a head-to-head battle with Mizzou, but Hendrix is from O’Fallon, Ill., just outside of St. Louis, which is only a two-hour drive from Missouri.

Finally, there’s Gavin Bryant, a Jackson, Ala., native who has also received interest from in-state Alabama and Auburn. Despite those schools’ history of stealing in-state prospects at the last minute, Bryant visited Knoxville last weekend and pronounced himself fully committed to the Vols.

Here’s a list of UT’s current verbal commitments.

LB Kevin Mouhon says he’s no longer committed to Tennessee

 

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — Tennessee linebacker commitment Kevin Mouhon announced on Twitter Thursday night that he would playing college football elsewhere.

One possible destination is Cincinnati, where his brother Silverberry is a standout defensive lineman.

Mouhon, of Norcross, Ga., had been verbally committed to the Vols since July 21.

His departure leaves Tennessee with 33 players in its 2014 signing class, including 14 who have already enrolled.

Here is Tennessee’s updated commitment list.