Over-under win total for Tennessee football? 5.5 is a popular starting point

Butch Jones, Tennessee football

Many fans would be satisfied with a 6-6 record and a bowl appearance in Butch Jones’ first season as coach. (News Sentinel photo)

KNOXVILLE, Tennessee — Selecting an over-under win total is tricky, because the numbers put out by Las Vegas sometimes say as much about the relative strength (and optimism) of a team’s fan base than they do about the team itself.

Even so, perusing the over-under totals is a fun summer tradition.

An online casino wisely took advantage of the potential for free publicity by issuing over-under totals for all 66 BCS teams.

Tennessee comes in at a fairly reasonable 5.5 wins. Given the Vols’ schedule, 5-7 and 6-6 are probably the most likely outcomes, so 5.5 makes sense.

But if you really wanted to place a bet on the total (that would be illegal in most U.S. states, which is why this information is FEPO*), the over and under aren’t weighted evenly. The over is listed at -210, meaning you’d have to wager $210 to win $100, while the under is +160, meaning a $100 bet wins $160.

Even though my current season prediction is 6-6, I’d probably take “under” 5.5 wins given those odds. What do you think? Over or under 5.5?

* For entertainment purposes only

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